Publication on COVID-19 spread in the UK

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Analysis from scientists at numerous universities across the UK has been published in Science, documenting the first wave of Covid-19 in the UK. A team at the HBBE, led by Dr Darren Smith, has been working with the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium in sequencing the virus genome and gathering data.

Abstract

The UK’s COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world’s largest and unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. Here we reveal the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout the country’s first wave of infection. Using large-scale phylogenetic analyses, combined with epidemiological and travel data, we quantify the size, spatio-temporal origins and persistence of genetically-distinct UK transmission lineages. Rapid fluctuations in virus importation rates resulted in >1000 lineages; those introduced prior to national lockdown tended to be larger and more dispersed. Lineage importation and regional lineage diversity declined after lockdown, while lineage elimination was size-dependent. We discuss the implications of our genetic perspective on transmission dynamics for COVID-19 epidemiology and control.

The full publication can be found here: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/07/science.abf2946